Migration forecasting using new technology and methods

This chapter presents an overview of approaches to forecasting international migration in the context of technological innovation. International migration is the most difficult to forecast component of population change. It is associated with uncertainty due to the lack of a unique definition, complexity of migration drivers, and incomplete or inadequate data. Technological innovation, especially in the information and communication domain, not only enables migration itself, but also provides new ways of its measurement. Statistical methods for integrating data based on a Bayesian inferential framework permit harvesting the potential of the new forms of data in combination with data from traditional sources. Approaches based on computer simulation can explicitly include the effect of technological innovation on the decisions of individuals about migration. However, they are currently only capable of indicative, rather than quantitative, forecasts.