Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Hans Heesterbeek; Roy M. Anderson; Viggo Andreasen; Shweta Bansal; Daniela De Angelis; Chris Dye; Ken T. D. Eames; W. John Edmunds; Simon D. W. Frost; Sebastian Funk; T. Deirdre Hollingsworth; Thomas House; Valerie Isham; Petra Klepac; Justin Lessler; James O. Lloyd-Smith; C. Jessica E. Metcalf; Denis Mollison; Lorenzo Pellis; Juliet R. C. Pulliam; Mick G. Roberts; Cecile Viboud; Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration

doi:DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Hans Heesterbeek, Roy M. Anderson, Viggo Andreasen, Shweta Bansal, Daniela De Angelis, Chris Dye, Ken T. D. Eames, W. John Edmunds, Simon D. W. Frost, Sebastian Funk, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth, Thomas House, Valerie Isham, Petra Klepac, Justin Lessler, James O. Lloyd-Smith, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Denis Mollison, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet R. C. PulliamMick G. Roberts, Cecile Viboud, Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

Original language	English
Number of pages	12
Journal	Science
Volume	347
Issue number	6227
DOIs	https://doi.org/DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339
Publication status	Published - Mar 2015

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DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339

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Heesterbeek, H., Anderson, R. M., Andreasen, V., Bansal, S., Angelis, D. D., Dye, C., Eames, K. T. D., Edmunds, W. J., Frost, S. D. W., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T. D., House, T., Isham, V., Klepac, P., Lessler, J., Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Metcalf, C. J. E., Mollison, D., Pellis, L., ... Collaboration, I. N. I. IDD. (2015). Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science, 347(6227). https://doi.org/DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339

@article{b84051196e1c4d748a2dbf6678f07ab6,

title = "Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health",

abstract = "Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.",

author = "Hans Heesterbeek and Anderson, {Roy M.} and Viggo Andreasen and Shweta Bansal and Angelis, {Daniela De} and Chris Dye and Eames, {Ken T. D.} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Frost, {Simon D. W.} and Sebastian Funk and Hollingsworth, {T. Deirdre} and Thomas House and Valerie Isham and Petra Klepac and Justin Lessler and Lloyd-Smith, {James O.} and Metcalf, {C. Jessica E.} and Denis Mollison and Lorenzo Pellis and Pulliam, {Juliet R. C.} and Roberts, {Mick G.} and Cecile Viboud and Collaboration, {Isaac Newton Institute IDD}",

year = "2015",

month = mar,

doi = "DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339",

language = "English",

volume = "347",

journal = "Science",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science (A A A S)",

number = "6227",

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Heesterbeek, H, Anderson, RM, Andreasen, V, Bansal, S, Angelis, DD, Dye, C, Eames, KTD, Edmunds, WJ, Frost, SDW, Funk, S, Hollingsworth, TD, House, T, Isham, V, Klepac, P, Lessler, J, Lloyd-Smith, JO, Metcalf, CJE, Mollison, D, Pellis, L, Pulliam, JRC, Roberts, MG, Viboud, C & Collaboration, INIIDD 2015, 'Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health', Science, vol. 347, no. 6227. https://doi.org/DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

AU - Heesterbeek, Hans

AU - Anderson, Roy M.

AU - Andreasen, Viggo

AU - Bansal, Shweta

AU - Angelis, Daniela De

AU - Dye, Chris

AU - Eames, Ken T. D.

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Frost, Simon D. W.

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre

AU - House, Thomas

AU - Isham, Valerie

AU - Klepac, Petra

AU - Lessler, Justin

AU - Lloyd-Smith, James O.

AU - Metcalf, C. Jessica E.

AU - Mollison, Denis

AU - Pellis, Lorenzo

AU - Pulliam, Juliet R. C.

AU - Roberts, Mick G.

AU - Viboud, Cecile

AU - Collaboration, Isaac Newton Institute IDD

PY - 2015/3

Y1 - 2015/3

N2 - Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

AB - Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

U2 - DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339

DO - DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4339

M3 - Article

VL - 347

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6227

ER -

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Abstract

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