Narrating transitions to low carbon futures: the role of long-term strategies (LTS) in fossil fuel producing emerging economies

This article examines how national ‘long-term strategies’ (LTS) narrate energy transitions to low carbon futures. It focuses on the case studies of South Africa and Nigeria as two early LTS submissions to the UNFCCC by prominent fossil fuel producing emerging economies. Given the relative lack of research on both the LTS specifically and the role of narrative futures in the IPE of energy transitions more generally, the article develops an analytical framework based around four key features of LTS narratives: their plots, actors, discourses, and silences. The article argues that there are important similarities in the narratives, especially concerning the leading role of state institutions and national planners. However, there are key differences in terms of narratives of the just transition in South Africa compared to economic growth and innovation in Nigeria, as well as in the cases made for international investment. Finally, there are silences in both LTS narratives in relation to issues of politics, democracy, subjectivity and ecology. This suggests some important limitations on the potential of LTS to advance a just global transition to a decarbonised global economy.