Predicting Foreseeable Uncertainty Using a Value Driven Design Methodology

Program overruns and delays have long been an issue within the aerospace industry. With so many external pressures from stakeholders and the continuously declining economy, aerospace manufacturers and developers are forced to concentrate effort to limit these overruns and delays. This paper introduces the development of a Value Driven Design inspired Capability Function (CF) that will ultimately be used to predict overrun and delay occurrence while also quantifying their economic impact on the program being developed. Within this paper specifically the inherent sub-variable reactions within the CF are explored and the most influential and design controllable variables identified. Upon identifying these variables an updated approximation of the CF is presented.