Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

Sukumar Natarajan, Geoffrey J. Levermore

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)5719-5727
    Number of pages8
    JournalEnergy Policy
    Issue number11
    Publication statusPublished - Nov 2007


    • Climate change
    • Domestic energy use and CO2 emissions
    • Housing stock transformation


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