Predicting the pattern and severity of chronic post-stroke language deficits from functionally-partitioned structural lesions

There is an ever-increasing wealth of knowledge arising from basic cognitive and clinical neuroscience on how speech and language capabilities are organised in the brain. It is, therefore, timely to use this accumulated knowledge and expertise to address critical research challenges, including the ability to predict the pattern and level of language deficits found in aphasic patients (a third of all stroke cases). Previous studies have mainly focused on discriminating between broad aphasia dichotomies from purely anatomically-defined lesion information. In the current study, we developed and assessed a novel approach in which core language areas were mapped using principal component analysis in combination with correlational lesion mapping and the resultant ‘functionally-partitioned’ lesion maps were used to predict a battery of 21 individual test scores as well as aphasia subtype for 70 patients with chronic post-stroke aphasia. Specifically, we used lesion information to predict behavioural scores in regression models (cross-validated using 5-folds). The winning model was identified through the adjusted R² (model fit to data) and performance in predicting holdout folds (generalisation to new cases). We also used logistic regression to predict fluent/non-fluent status and aphasia subtype. Functionally-partitioned models generally outperformed other models at predicting individual tests, fluency status and aphasia subtype.