This study describes a method that can predict the hardness minimum location as a function of natural aging time in a heat-treatable 6061-T6 Al alloy plate subjected to friction stir welding (FSW). First, temperature distributions were simulated in the FSW plate by finite element modeling. Second, to determine the natural aging kinetics, hardness changes were measured as a function of natural aging time from a number of Al specimens that had been isothermally heat treated at different peak temperatures. Finally, the simulated temperature profiles and the natural aging kinetics were correlated to predict the hardness profiles in the FSW plate. The predicted hardness minimum locations are consistent with the measured hardness profiles in that the hardness moves away from the weld centerline as the aging time increases. Moreover, the predicted hardness minimum is located at the similar position of failure in cross-weld tensile samples.