Prediction of power cable failure rate based on failure history and operational conditions

Swati Sachan; Chengke Zhou; Geraint  Bevan; Babakali Alkali

Prediction of power cable failure rate based on failure history and operational conditions

Swati Sachan, Chengke Zhou, Geraint Bevan, Babakali Alkali

Management Sciences

Glasgow Caledonian University

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

Abstract

In this paper, the failure causes of cables are classified into two types, random and ageing. The piece wise power law non-homogeneous Poisson process and stochastic electro-thermal model is proposed to predict the total annual and ageing failures, respectively, and the amalgamation of the two models is used to estimate the random failures. The proposed methodology is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The result shows that these cables have average 39 years of ageing life. However, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life.

Original language	English
Pages	C1-4
Number of pages	4
Publication status	Published - Jun 2015
Event	9th International Conference on Insulated Power Cables (Jicable) - Versailles, France Duration: 21 Jun 2015 → … http://www.jicable.org/2015/prg_sessions_A1_E10.php

Conference

Conference	9th International Conference on Insulated Power Cables (Jicable)
Country/Territory	France
City	Versailles
Period	21/06/15 → …
Internet address	http://www.jicable.org/2015/prg_sessions_A1_E10.php

Keywords

Failure
operational conditions
Ageing
Poisson process

Cite this

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title = "Prediction of power cable failure rate based on failure history and operational conditions",

abstract = "In this paper, the failure causes of cables are classified into two types, random and ageing. The piece wise power law non-homogeneous Poisson process and stochastic electro-thermal model is proposed to predict the total annual and ageing failures, respectively, and the amalgamation of the two models is used to estimate the random failures. The proposed methodology is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The result shows that these cables have average 39 years of ageing life. However, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life. ",

keywords = "Failure, operational conditions, Ageing, Poisson process",

author = "Swati Sachan and Chengke Zhou and Geraint Bevan and Babakali Alkali",

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language = "English",

pages = "C1--4",

note = "9th International Conference on Insulated Power Cables (Jicable) ; Conference date: 21-06-2015",

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TY - CONF

T1 - Prediction of power cable failure rate based on failure history and operational conditions

AU - Sachan, Swati

AU - Zhou, Chengke

AU - Bevan, Geraint

AU - Alkali, Babakali

PY - 2015/6

Y1 - 2015/6

N2 - In this paper, the failure causes of cables are classified into two types, random and ageing. The piece wise power law non-homogeneous Poisson process and stochastic electro-thermal model is proposed to predict the total annual and ageing failures, respectively, and the amalgamation of the two models is used to estimate the random failures. The proposed methodology is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The result shows that these cables have average 39 years of ageing life. However, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life.

AB - In this paper, the failure causes of cables are classified into two types, random and ageing. The piece wise power law non-homogeneous Poisson process and stochastic electro-thermal model is proposed to predict the total annual and ageing failures, respectively, and the amalgamation of the two models is used to estimate the random failures. The proposed methodology is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The result shows that these cables have average 39 years of ageing life. However, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life.

KW - Failure

KW - operational conditions

KW - Ageing

KW - Poisson process

M3 - Paper

SP - C1-4

T2 - 9th International Conference on Insulated Power Cables (Jicable)

Y2 - 21 June 2015

ER -

Prediction of power cable failure rate based on failure history and operational conditions

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

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Cite this