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## Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic method for assessing overload probability of power lines and gas pipelines in integrated gas and electricity networks with the consideration of heat electrification. The proposed model fully considers the correlated uncertainties associated with intermittent generation and fluctuating loads using suitable probability distribution functions and copulas. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified with application in two test systems: the integrated 9-bus electricity and 8-node gas network, and the integrated IEEE 39-bus and Belgian 20-node gas network. Numerical results show that heat electrification increases the overload probability of some power lines due to a major shift of heat loads to the electricity network. When the correlations of wind and photovoltaic generation as well as electric, gas and heat loads are considered, the overload probability of these power lines further increases showing the importance of correlation modelling for an accurate estimation of power flows and line overload probability. When an uneven distribution of heat loads (i.e., clustering of low-carbon technologies) in the electricity network is considered, the overload probability of some power lines further increases. Heat electrification decreases the overload probability of most gas pipelines, although the probability of overloading a few gas pipelines increases as a result of supplying gas to gas-fired power generators to meet the electrified heat demand.

Original language | English |
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Journal | Electric Power Systems Research |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2024 |

## Keywords

- correlation
- decarbonisation
- heat pumps
- load flow
- gas pipelines
- uncertainty

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