Probabilistic modeling of earthquake recurrence and magnitude for enhanced geohazard assessment and infrastructure resilience

Seismically active zones pose significant challenges to infrastructure resilience, particularly in regions influenced by continuous tectonic movements. This study presents an innovative probabilistic modeling framework to assess earthquake recurrence and magnitude, focusing on geohazards impacting dams. Using an extensive seismic catalog spanning a century (1923–2023) and integrating neotectonic data, the model evaluates spatial and temporal seismicity patterns in the Al Wahda Dam watershed (AWDW) in the Rif Mountains, Morocco. The methodology employs advanced computational techniques to analyze earthquake recurrence intervals and the probabilities associated with varying magnitudes. The findings reveal a distinct spatial distribution of seismic activity, with higher earthquake densities observed near the extremities of the dam. The models predict a > 20 % probability of low-magnitude events (≤ 3 Mw) and a 100 % likelihood of moderate-magnitude earthquakes (≥ 4 Mw) within the next 25 years, emphasizing a critical vulnerability of the AWDW to seismic hazards. This research provides actionable insights for engineering geologists by identifying vulnerable zones, estimating earthquake recurrence intervals, and supporting geotechnical planning for infrastructure safety. The study contributes to the global engineering geology community by advancing probabilistic methods for seismic hazard assessment and offering a novel, robust, transferable methodology applicable to other seismically sensitive regions. Its successful integration into assessing regional seismicity and neotectonic data with computational techniques enhances the precision of risk assessment. The findings are essential for land use planning, dam safety, and mitigation strategies, providing tools for improving resilience against geological hazards, while bridging the gap between earth sciences and geotechnical applications.