TY - JOUR
T1 - Relative contribution of essential and non-essential activities to SARS-CoV-2 transmission following the lifting of public health restrictions in England and Wales
AU - Virus Watch Collaborative
AU - Hoskins, Susan
AU - Beale, Sarah
AU - Nguyen, Vincent
AU - Boukari, Yamina
AU - Yavlinsky, Alexei
AU - Kovar, Jana
AU - Byrne, Thomas
AU - Fragaszy, Ellen
AU - Fong, Wing Lam Erica
AU - Geismar, Cyril
AU - Patel, Parth
AU - Navaratnam, Annalan M D
AU - van Tongeren, Martie
AU - Johnson, Anne M
AU - Aldridge, Robert W
AU - Hayward, Andrew
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12/7
Y1 - 2022/12/7
N2 - Purpose We aimed to understand which non-household activities increased infection odds and contributed greatest to SARS-CoV-2 infections following the lifting of public health restrictions in England and Wales. Procedures We undertook multivariable logistic regressions assessing the contribution to infections of activities reported by adult Virus Watch Community Cohort Study participants. We calculated adjusted weighted population attributable fractions (aPAF) estimating which activity contributed greatest to infections. Findings Among 11 413 participants (493 infections), infection was associated with: leaving home for work (aOR 1.35 (1.11-1.64), aPAF 17%), public transport (aOR 1.27 (1.04-1.57), aPAF 12%), shopping once (aOR 1.83 (1.36-2.45)) vs. more than three times a week, indoor leisure (aOR 1.24 (1.02-1.51), aPAF 10%) and indoor hospitality (aOR 1.21 (0.98-1.48), aPAF 7%). We found no association for outdoor hospitality (1.14 (0.94-1.39), aPAF 5%) or outdoor leisure (1.14 (0.82-1.59), aPAF 1%). Conclusion Essential activities (work and public transport) carried the greatest risk and were the dominant contributors to infections. Non-essential indoor activities (hospitality and leisure) increased risk but contributed less. Outdoor activities carried no statistical risk and contributed to fewer infections. As countries aim to 'live with COVID', mitigating transmission in essential and indoor venues becomes increasingly relevant.
AB - Purpose We aimed to understand which non-household activities increased infection odds and contributed greatest to SARS-CoV-2 infections following the lifting of public health restrictions in England and Wales. Procedures We undertook multivariable logistic regressions assessing the contribution to infections of activities reported by adult Virus Watch Community Cohort Study participants. We calculated adjusted weighted population attributable fractions (aPAF) estimating which activity contributed greatest to infections. Findings Among 11 413 participants (493 infections), infection was associated with: leaving home for work (aOR 1.35 (1.11-1.64), aPAF 17%), public transport (aOR 1.27 (1.04-1.57), aPAF 12%), shopping once (aOR 1.83 (1.36-2.45)) vs. more than three times a week, indoor leisure (aOR 1.24 (1.02-1.51), aPAF 10%) and indoor hospitality (aOR 1.21 (0.98-1.48), aPAF 7%). We found no association for outdoor hospitality (1.14 (0.94-1.39), aPAF 5%) or outdoor leisure (1.14 (0.82-1.59), aPAF 1%). Conclusion Essential activities (work and public transport) carried the greatest risk and were the dominant contributors to infections. Non-essential indoor activities (hospitality and leisure) increased risk but contributed less. Outdoor activities carried no statistical risk and contributed to fewer infections. As countries aim to 'live with COVID', mitigating transmission in essential and indoor venues becomes increasingly relevant.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Coronavirus
KW - infectious disease epidemiology
KW - public health
KW - respiratory infections
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85144479150&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S0950268822001832
DO - 10.1017/S0950268822001832
M3 - Article
C2 - 36475452
SN - 0950-2688
VL - 151
SP - e3
JO - Epidemiology and infection
JF - Epidemiology and infection
M1 - e3
ER -
