Social protection in an aspiring ‘developmental state’: The political drivers of Ethiopia’s PSNP

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme is among the largest social protection programmes in Africa and has been promoted as a model for the continent. This paper analyses the political drivers of the programme, arguing that elite commitment to the PSNP needs to be understood in the context of shifts within Ethiopia’s political settlement and the government’s evolving development strategy. While food security had long been a priority for the ruling party, the 2002/03 food crisis—coming on the back of a series of other political shocks—was perceived as an existential crisis for the ruling coalition, prompting the incorporation of the PSNP into the existing rural development strategy. Foreign donors provided policy ideas and pushed for reform, but it was not until incentives flowing from the political settlement were favourable that elite commitment was secured. Even then, longstanding ideological commitments shaped the productive focus of the programme, ensuring consistency with the development strategy. While the removal of the PSNP is now unthinkable, the extent to which this represents a broader commitment to social protection remains an open question.