TY - JOUR
T1 - Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity generation (2010–2050)
AU - Geels, Frank
AU - Mcmeekin, Andrew
AU - Pfluger, B
N1 - Funding Information:
We want to thank the three reviewers for their helpful (and in one instance very extensive and perceptive) comments. We also gratefully acknowledge support from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 603942 (PATHWAYS).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier Inc.
Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/2/1
Y1 - 2020/2/1
N2 - Social acceptance and political feasibility are important issues in low-carbon transitions. Since computer models struggle to address these issues, the paper advances socio-technical scenarios as a novel methodological tool. Contributing to recent dialogue approaches, we develop an eight-step methodological procedure that produces socio-technical scenarios through various interactions between the multi-level perspective and computer models. As a specific contribution, we propose ‘transition bottlenecks’ as a methodological aid to mediate dialogue between qualitative MLP-based analysis of contemporary dynamics and quantitative, model-generated future pathways. The transition bottlenecks also guide the articulation of socio-technical storylines that suggest how the social acceptance and political feasibility of particular low-carbon innovations can be improved through social interactions and endogenous changes in discourses, preferences, support coalitions and policies. Drawing on results from the 3-year PATHWAYS project, we demonstrate these contributions for the UK electricity system, developing two low-carbon transition pathways to 2050 commensurate with the 2 °C target, one based on technological substitution (enacted by incumbent actors), and one based on broader system transformation (enacted by new entrants).
AB - Social acceptance and political feasibility are important issues in low-carbon transitions. Since computer models struggle to address these issues, the paper advances socio-technical scenarios as a novel methodological tool. Contributing to recent dialogue approaches, we develop an eight-step methodological procedure that produces socio-technical scenarios through various interactions between the multi-level perspective and computer models. As a specific contribution, we propose ‘transition bottlenecks’ as a methodological aid to mediate dialogue between qualitative MLP-based analysis of contemporary dynamics and quantitative, model-generated future pathways. The transition bottlenecks also guide the articulation of socio-technical storylines that suggest how the social acceptance and political feasibility of particular low-carbon innovations can be improved through social interactions and endogenous changes in discourses, preferences, support coalitions and policies. Drawing on results from the 3-year PATHWAYS project, we demonstrate these contributions for the UK electricity system, developing two low-carbon transition pathways to 2050 commensurate with the 2 °C target, one based on technological substitution (enacted by incumbent actors), and one based on broader system transformation (enacted by new entrants).
KW - Computer models
KW - Scenarios
KW - Socio-technical transitions
KW - Transition pathways
KW - UK electricity generation
U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.001
DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.001
M3 - Article
SN - 0040-1625
VL - 151
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
M1 - 119258
ER -