Spending, canvassing and electoral success in marginal constituencies: England and Scotland in 2017

Substantial evidence shows that candidates’ and parties’ performances in constituencies at UK general elections are influenced by the intensity of their local campaigns, but that evidence is almost invariably based on analyses of voting across all constituencies. Most constituencies are unlikely to change hands, however. This paper explores whether the impact of spending varies according to seat marginality and analyses the pattern of spending and canvassing in the 123 Labour-Conservative marginals in England and all 59 constituencies in Scotland. The results are consistent with expectations: campaigning and canvassing matters most where campaigning and canvassing should matter most.