Abstract
Beginning with early voting in Zanzibar on October 27 and then continuing
through October 28, Tanzanians went to the polls in a general election for
district councilors, Members of Parliament (MPs) and the President. As
official results began to be declared, it became clear that Tanzania’s longtime ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), had won a landslide. After
significant opposition party gains in recent elections, these results
constituted a dramatic reversal and a de facto return to one-party rule.
Opposition parties continue to challenge this outcome, denouncing what
they affirm was not a genuine election but a state-orchestrated sham.
Reflecting on these dramatic shifts, this study addresses two questions:
What explains the election results? And what are the implications for
Tanzanian politics going forward? The main point is that the 2020 elections
were a result of President John Pombe Magufuli’s efforts to consolidate
authoritarian control after he first came to power in 2015.
The study outlines how Magufuli used his first term not only to
marginalize opposition parties but also to centralize power within the ruling
party. It then examines how these processes intensified ahead of the
election, culminating in the official declaration of an overwhelming CCM
victory at all levels. The note concludes by discussing the implications of this
election outcome for Magufuli’s second term, focusing on his control of
parliament and the possibility of a constitutional amendment lifting
presidential term limits.
through October 28, Tanzanians went to the polls in a general election for
district councilors, Members of Parliament (MPs) and the President. As
official results began to be declared, it became clear that Tanzania’s longtime ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), had won a landslide. After
significant opposition party gains in recent elections, these results
constituted a dramatic reversal and a de facto return to one-party rule.
Opposition parties continue to challenge this outcome, denouncing what
they affirm was not a genuine election but a state-orchestrated sham.
Reflecting on these dramatic shifts, this study addresses two questions:
What explains the election results? And what are the implications for
Tanzanian politics going forward? The main point is that the 2020 elections
were a result of President John Pombe Magufuli’s efforts to consolidate
authoritarian control after he first came to power in 2015.
The study outlines how Magufuli used his first term not only to
marginalize opposition parties but also to centralize power within the ruling
party. It then examines how these processes intensified ahead of the
election, culminating in the official declaration of an overwhelming CCM
victory at all levels. The note concludes by discussing the implications of this
election outcome for Magufuli’s second term, focusing on his control of
parliament and the possibility of a constitutional amendment lifting
presidential term limits.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Place of Publication | Paris |
| Publisher | Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri) |
| Number of pages | 37 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9791037303035 |
| Publication status | Published - Feb 2021 |