The application of an environmentally extended multi-regional input output model to investigate the role of technological change and consumption practices in delivering low carbon futures for the UK

The official way of accounting for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions isestablished under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). While the UNFCCC system generally takes into account allgreenhouse gas emissions from UK territory it fails to account for emissionsembedded in UK imports consumed in the UK. While UK territorial emissionsare reducing consumer emissions continue to increase. This paper establishes the implications of UK climate change strategies onthe UK's consumer emissions. It presents the findings and policyramifications from three key research questions: firstly what impact doterritorial mitigation pathways have on the UK's consumption basedemissions; secondly how can changes in consumption levels and profilescontribute to mitigation; and thirdly how much carbon leaks out ofmitigation efforts due to imports from countries that operate outside theUNFCCC (defined here as non-Annex B countries)? To explore these questions we present the application of a "Multi-Regional EnvironmentallyExtended input output model" coupled with a set of scenario tools toquantify the impact of future mitigation efforts in the UK and globally onUK consumption emissions. The scenario tools include models to quantify theimpact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on the direct environmentalimpacts of industry; future changes in both the level and type ofconsumption in the UK; the origin of goods and services consumed within theUK and the impact of changes in energy supply on the transactions betweenenergy providers and consumers. The research demonstrates the emissionreductions that can be achieved through strategies developed to deliverterritorial emission reductions for example through the decarbonisation ofan energy system and the level and type of consumption that could besupported by this system to remain within a carbon budget.