The avoiding late diagnosis of ovarian cancer (ALDO) project; a pilot national surveillance programme for women with pathogenic germline variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2

Sue Philpott, Maria Raikou, Ranjit Manchanda, Michelle Lockley, Naveena Singh, Malcolm Scott, D Gareth Evans, Julian Adlard, Munaza Ahmed, Richard Edmondson, Athena Lamnisos, Janos Balega, Angela F Brady, Aarti Sharma, Louise Izatt, Anjana Kulkarni, Vishakha Tripathi, Joyce S Solomons, Helen Hanson, Katie SnapeLucy Side, Steve Skates, Alistair McGuire, Adam N Rosenthal

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background Our study aimed to establish 'real-world' performance and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer (OC) surveillance in women with pathogenic germline BRCA1/2 variants who defer risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO). Methods Our study recruited 875 female BRCA1/2-heterozygotes at 13 UK centres and via an online media campaign, with 767 undergoing at least one 4-monthly surveillance test with the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) test. Surveillance performance was calculated with modelling of occult cancers detected at RRSO. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated using Markov population cohort simulation. Results Our study identified 8 OCs during 1277 women screen years: 2 occult OCs at RRSO (both stage 1a), and 6 screen-detected; 3 of 6 (50%) were ≤stage 3a and 5 of 6 (83%) were completely surgically cytoreduced. Modelled sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) for OC were 87.5% (95% CI, 47.3 to 99.7), 99.9% (99.9-100), 75% (34.9-96.8) and 99.9% (99.9-100), respectively. The predicted number of quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained by surveillance was 0.179 with an ICER cost-saving of -£102,496/QALY. Conclusion OC surveillance for women deferring RRSO in a 'real-world' setting is feasible and demonstrates similar performance to research trials; it down-stages OC, leading to a high complete cytoreduction rate and is cost-saving in the UK National Health Service (NHS) setting. While RRSO remains recommended management, ROCA-based surveillance may be considered for female BRCA-heterozygotes who are deferring such surgery.

Original languageEnglish
Article number108741
Pages (from-to)440-449
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Medical Genetics
Volume60
Issue number5
Early online date1 Nov 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 May 2023

Keywords

  • Costs and Cost Analysis
  • Early Diagnosis
  • Economics
  • Genetic Predisposition to Disease
  • Women's Health

Research Beacons, Institutes and Platforms

  • Manchester Cancer Research Centre

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