The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election

James Griffiths; Stuart Perrett; Edward Fieldhouse; Chris Prosser; Jane Green; Jonathan Mellon; Jack Bailey; Geoffrey Evans

The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election

James Griffiths, Stuart Perrett, Edward Fieldhouse, Chris Prosser, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey, Geoffrey Evans

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support for the pro-Brexit Conservatives has collapsed, and the 2024 UK General Election was the most volatile on record. So, did the Brexit realignment persist? We address this question by examining the relationship between Brexit preferences and demographic groups with vote choice. We find that the demographic alignments that underpinned Brexit support continue to shape political behaviour through support for party blocs. Thus, while Brexit itself no longer drives party competition directly, the trends that it intensified are still crucial for understanding British politics.

Original language	English
Journal	Parliamentary Affairs
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 3 Mar 2025

Keywords

Brexit
British Politics
Demographic Alignments
Elections
Realignments
Voting

Embargoed Document

2024_Election_Team_Paper_RR_07032025_submission
Accepted author manuscript, 891 KB
Licence: CC BY
Embargo ends: 13/03/26

Cite this

@article{8024d65008df4c8a99a7f9eb8d7a2d98,

title = "The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election",

abstract = "Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support for the pro-Brexit Conservatives has collapsed, and the 2024 UK General Election was the most volatile on record. So, did the Brexit realignment persist? We address this question by examining the relationship between Brexit preferences and demographic groups with vote choice. We find that the demographic alignments that underpinned Brexit support continue to shape political behaviour through support for party blocs. Thus, while Brexit itself no longer drives party competition directly, the trends that it intensified are still crucial for understanding British politics.",

keywords = "Brexit, British Politics, Demographic Alignments, Elections, Realignments, Voting",

author = "James Griffiths and Stuart Perrett and Edward Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser and Jane Green and Jonathan Mellon and Jack Bailey and Geoffrey Evans",

year = "2025",

month = mar,

day = "3",

language = "English",

journal = "Parliamentary Affairs",

issn = "0031-2290",

publisher = "Oxford University Press",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election

AU - Griffiths, James

AU - Perrett, Stuart

AU - Fieldhouse, Edward

AU - Prosser, Chris

AU - Green, Jane

AU - Mellon, Jonathan

AU - Bailey, Jack

AU - Evans, Geoffrey

PY - 2025/3/3

Y1 - 2025/3/3

N2 - Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support for the pro-Brexit Conservatives has collapsed, and the 2024 UK General Election was the most volatile on record. So, did the Brexit realignment persist? We address this question by examining the relationship between Brexit preferences and demographic groups with vote choice. We find that the demographic alignments that underpinned Brexit support continue to shape political behaviour through support for party blocs. Thus, while Brexit itself no longer drives party competition directly, the trends that it intensified are still crucial for understanding British politics.

AB - Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support for the pro-Brexit Conservatives has collapsed, and the 2024 UK General Election was the most volatile on record. So, did the Brexit realignment persist? We address this question by examining the relationship between Brexit preferences and demographic groups with vote choice. We find that the demographic alignments that underpinned Brexit support continue to shape political behaviour through support for party blocs. Thus, while Brexit itself no longer drives party competition directly, the trends that it intensified are still crucial for understanding British politics.

KW - Brexit

KW - British Politics

KW - Demographic Alignments

KW - Elections

KW - Realignments

KW - Voting

M3 - Article

SN - 0031-2290

JO - Parliamentary Affairs

JF - Parliamentary Affairs

ER -

The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election

Abstract

Keywords

Embargoed Document

Fingerprint

Cite this