Although risk assessment is probably the most difficult component of the Risk Management process, it is potentially the most useful. A critical review of the literature published on the topic over the last 27 years has revealed significant results, summarized as follows. Variants of Probability-Impact modeling are predominant; while traditionally the focus was on objective probability gradually subjective probability has become dominant. Risk analysis of project duration or cost is prevalent; the analysis of project performance risk is hardly mentioned in literature. Further, no risk assessment approach was discovered that deploys a common scale to simultaneously assess the alternative impacts of a risk on the various project objectives. Most of the existing approaches provide a risk rating; very few actually quantify risk. The limitations of the existing theories and tools indicate the need for improved alternatives. We conclude that the use of ÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Â˜risk costÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Â™ as a common scale within a belief-based decision making framework would be an innovative solution, overcoming current shortcomings and generally improving construction risk assessment.
|Number of pages||10|
|Journal||The Built & Human Environment Review|
|Publication status||Published - 2011|
- risk assessment, risk modelling, risk cost, Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence, literature review