The depth of the horizon: Searching, scanning and widening horizons

Ian Miles, Ozcan Saritas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Purpose: This essay aims to introduce horizon scanning as an approach fundamental to most foresight studies. Design/methodology/approach: The essay combines a general review of the topic with an overview of a range of horizon-scanning approaches that are in use in the UK health system. Findings: Different approaches - shorter as well as longer-term, searching as well as broad scanning - are appropriate in different circumstances. In times of systemic change it is necessary to combine approaches of all types. Research limitations/implications: Only a small sample of the huge range of horizon-scanning exercises has been studied, and the essay has not gone far into the question of how horizon-scanning relates to other elements of the foresight process. Practical implications: The implication is that horizon-scanning should be undertaken on a routine basis, and should be integrated into planning activities from the start. Social implications: Horizon-scanning is a tool needed in activities such as planning for the workforce, and for health and safety issues. Originality/value: The essay covers a wide range of activities with real-life illustrations in addition to overall assessment. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)530-545
Number of pages15
JournalForesight
Volume14
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2012

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Forward planning
  • Health services sector
  • Human capital
  • Plans
  • Strategic planning

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