The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom

A. Ghani; M. Baguelin; J. Griffin; S. Flasche; Richard Pebody; A.J. van Hoek; S. Cauchemez; I. Hall; C. Donnelly; C. Robertson; Michael T. White; Iain Barrass; C. Fraser; Alison Bermingham; J. Truscott; Joanna Ellis; Helen E. Jenkins; George Kafatos; T. Garske; Ross Harris; Jim McMenamin; Colin Hawkins; Nick Phin; André Charlett; Maria Zambon; W. John Edmunds; Mike Catchpole; S. Leach; Peter J. White; Neil M. Ferguson; Ben S. Cooper

The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom

A. Ghani, M. Baguelin, J. Griffin, S. Flasche, Richard Pebody, A.J. van Hoek, S. Cauchemez, I. Hall, C. Donnelly, C. Robertson, Michael T. White, Iain Barrass, C. Fraser, Alison Bermingham, J. Truscott, Joanna Ellis, Helen E. Jenkins, George Kafatos, T. Garske, Ross HarrisJim McMenamin, Colin Hawkins, Nick Phin, André Charlett, Maria Zambon, W. John Edmunds, Mike Catchpole, S. Leach, Peter J. White, Neil M. Ferguson, Ben S. Cooper

Statistics

Health Protection Scotland

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

Original language	English
Article number	RRN1130
Journal	PL o S currents
Volume	1
Publication status	Published - 13 Jun 2010

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2780827/

Cite this

Ghani, A., Baguelin, M., Griffin, J., Flasche, S., Pebody, R., van Hoek, A. J., Cauchemez, S., Hall, I., Donnelly, C., Robertson, C., White, M. T., Barrass, I., Fraser, C., Bermingham, A., Truscott, J., Ellis, J., Jenkins, H. E., Kafatos, G., Garske, T., ... Cooper, B. S. (2010). The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom. PL o S currents, 1, Article RRN1130. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2780827/

@article{98c24c6a160048e3911505dc768a70ef,

title = "The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom",

abstract = "We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).",

author = "A. Ghani and M. Baguelin and J. Griffin and S. Flasche and Richard Pebody and {van Hoek}, A.J. and S. Cauchemez and I. Hall and C. Donnelly and C. Robertson and White, {Michael T.} and Iain Barrass and C. Fraser and Alison Bermingham and J. Truscott and Joanna Ellis and Jenkins, {Helen E.} and George Kafatos and T. Garske and Ross Harris and Jim McMenamin and Colin Hawkins and Nick Phin and Andr{\'e} Charlett and Maria Zambon and Edmunds, {W. John} and Mike Catchpole and S. Leach and White, {Peter J.} and Ferguson, {Neil M.} and Cooper, {Ben S.}",

year = "2010",

month = jun,

day = "13",

language = "English",

volume = "1",

journal = "PL o S currents",

issn = "2157-3999",

publisher = "Public Library of Science",

}

Ghani, A, Baguelin, M, Griffin, J, Flasche, S, Pebody, R, van Hoek, AJ, Cauchemez, S, Hall, I, Donnelly, C, Robertson, C, White, MT, Barrass, I, Fraser, C, Bermingham, A, Truscott, J, Ellis, J, Jenkins, HE, Kafatos, G, Garske, T, Harris, R, McMenamin, J, Hawkins, C, Phin, N, Charlett, A, Zambon, M, Edmunds, WJ, Catchpole, M, Leach, S, White, PJ, Ferguson, NM & Cooper, BS 2010, 'The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom', PL o S currents, vol. 1, RRN1130. <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2780827/>

TY - JOUR

T1 - The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom

AU - Ghani, A.

AU - Baguelin, M.

AU - Griffin, J.

AU - Flasche, S.

AU - Pebody, Richard

AU - van Hoek, A.J.

AU - Cauchemez, S.

AU - Hall, I.

AU - Donnelly, C.

AU - Robertson, C.

AU - White, Michael T.

AU - Barrass, Iain

AU - Fraser, C.

AU - Bermingham, Alison

AU - Truscott, J.

AU - Ellis, Joanna

AU - Jenkins, Helen E.

AU - Kafatos, George

AU - Garske, T.

AU - Harris, Ross

AU - McMenamin, Jim

AU - Hawkins, Colin

AU - Phin, Nick

AU - Charlett, André

AU - Zambon, Maria

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Catchpole, Mike

AU - Leach, S.

AU - White, Peter J.

AU - Ferguson, Neil M.

AU - Cooper, Ben S.

PY - 2010/6/13

Y1 - 2010/6/13

N2 - We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

AB - We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84873363663&partnerID=MN8TOARS

M3 - Article

SN - 2157-3999

VL - 1

JO - PL o S currents

JF - PL o S currents

M1 - RRN1130

ER -

The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this