The effect of shared e-scooter programs on modal shift: Evidence from Sweden

Fostering sustainable cities necessitates a significant paradigm shift from motorised vehicles to active mobility. However, the impact of emerging transport modes like e-scooters in this transition remains unclear. To explore the potential of this shift, we polled 805 (non)users of e-scooters in Sweden via an online survey to explore (i) who are e-scooter users and (ii) how e-scooter use affects the probability of modal substitution for users. The propensity score matching method was used to obtain unbiased estimates of e-scooter usage impact on modal substitution and to construct an artificial control group, overcoming potential biases present in previous studies that exclusively surveyed e-scooter users. We found that e-scooter users are more likely to have a high-paying job, a driving license, own an e-bike and car, and public transport cards, suggesting diverse travel behaviours. These findings indicate that e-scooter users are more likely to be highly mobile people with a potential for multimodal transport. Furthermore, being an e-scooter user will increase the probability of shifting their short-range trip to an e-scooter by 46 %. Findings provide pivotal insights into e-scooter modal shifts, crucial for ex-ante and ex-post evaluations of e-scooter adoption, the deployment of e-scooter schemes, and contribute to travel demand management.