The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo

Jonathan Aylen, Kevin Albertson (Collaborator), Gina Cavan (Collaborator)

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities. Yet few studies assess the effect of current weather and climate conditions upon visits to leisure attractions. Statistical time series models are used to analyse the short-run impact of weather and the long-run impact of climate upon visits to Chester Zoo, England. Temperature has a non-linear effect on visit levels. Daily visits rise with temperature up to a threshold around 21ºC. Thereafter visitor numbers drop on hot days. Visits are redistributed over time in accordance with the weather. Visitors discouraged by rainy weather one day turn up later when the weather improves. Otherwise, visitor behaviour is mainly influenced by the annual rhythm of the year and the pattern of public and school holidays. Out-of-sample tests suggest almost 70% of the variation in visit levels can be explained by the combination of weather and time of year. Climate change is likely to redistribute visitors across the year. But it does not follow that “summer” visitor behaviour will transfer to spring and autumn. Day length, existing patterns of human activity and availability of leisure time constrain visit levels regardless of better weather. The main implication of potential climate change is the need for physical adaptation of the tourist environment as temperatures rise and rainfall diminishes in summer.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)183-197
Number of pages14
JournalClimatic Change
Volume127
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2014

Keywords

  • tourist demand; autoregressive distributed lag; seasonality; temperature effects; rainfall effects; out-of-sample evaluation

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