The policy-opinion link and institutional change: the legislative agenda of the United Kingdom and Scottish Parliaments, 1990-2008

According to Soroka and Wlezien (2007, 2008 2009), institutions mediate the effect of public opinion on policy by affecting clarity of responsibility in decision-making. In the UK this generates the prediction that the devolution of power to territorial units weakens the effect of public opinion on policy by its reduction of clarity of responsibility, with the sharing of power between national and devolved levels of government. The analysis uses a new dataset on legislative outputs of the UK and Scottish parliaments and on UK and Scottish public opinion from Ipsos-MORI to measure the link between public opinion and legislative outputs in the UK and Scotland. It finds, first, that the policy-opinion link in the UK appears to be weaker since devolution to Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly in 1999 compared with the period between 1977 and 1998. Second, it shows that there is no evidence of a direct link between Scottish public opinion and legislative outputs of the Scottish Parliament. These results provide support for Soroka and Wlezien.