The prognostic value of Emergency Department measured hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Patricia Van Den Berg, Charles Reynard, Govind Oliver, Mina Peter Naguib, Camilla Sammut-Powell, Brian McMillan, Anthony Heagerty, Rick Body

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Objectives: The objective was to assess the prognostic value of hypertension detected in the emergency department (ED). Methods: The ED presents a unique opportunity to predict long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes with its potential for high-footfall, and large-scale routine data collection applied to underserved patient populations. A systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted to assess the prognostic performance and feasibility of ED-measured hypertension as a risk factor for long-term CVD outcomes. We searched MEDLINE and Embase databases and gray literature sources. The target populations were undifferentiated ED patients. The prognostic factor of interest was hypertension. Feasibility outcomes included prevalence, reliability, and follow-up attendance. Meta-analyses were performed for feasibility using a random effect and exact likelihood. Results: The searches identified 1072 studies after title and abstract review, 53 studies had their full text assessed for eligibility, and 26 studies were included. Significant heterogeneity was identified, likely due to the international populations and differing study design. The meta-analyses estimate of prevalence for ED-measured hypertension was 0.31 (95% confidence interval 0.25–0.37). ED hypertension was persistent outside the ED (FE estimate of 0.50). The proportion of patients attending follow-up was low with an exact likelihood estimate of 0.41. Three studies examined the prognostic performance of hypertension and demonstrated an increased risk of long-term CVD outcomes. Conclusion: Hypertension can be measured feasibly in the ED and consequently used in a long-term cardiovascular risk prediction model. There is an opportunity to intervene in targeted individuals, using routinely collected data.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)344-353
Number of pages10
JournalAcademic Emergency Medicine
Issue number3
Early online date22 Sept 2021
Publication statusPublished - 28 Mar 2022


  • cardiovascular disease
  • emergency medicine
  • preventative medicine


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