Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery

Michael Artis, Marianne Sensier

Research output: Working paper

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This is a technical paper that tries to assess turning points in the economic cycle of sub-regions by applying a business cycle dating methodology to monthly North West local authority district claimant count data. We date the transition of all districts of the North West into recession beginning in June 2007. By utilising manufacturing and service sector survey information in a modelling exercise, we forecast the continuation of the recession for the North West region’s employment cycle into 2010. A longer term forecast with the Land Registry’s house price index predicts a transition to an expansion phase in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationManchester (
Number of pages40
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2010

Publication series

NameNew Economy Working Papers
PublisherManchester's Commission for the New Economy


  • Regional economy, business cycles, logit model, forecasting


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