Troubling futures: Scenarios and scenario planning for organizational decision making

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Introduction – Scenarios as Cognitive Devices – Breaking the Shackles: Scenarios and Cognitive Inertia – Basic Effects of Scenarios on Judgments and Decisions – Effects of Scenarios on Uncertainty and Confidence – Scenarios Can Anchor and Restrict Thinking – The Role of Scenarios in Attenuating and Exacerbating Biases – The Problem with Incredible Futures: The Plausibility Paradox – Blowing Hot and Cold: Affective Dimensions of Scenario Planning – Summary and Conclusions
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making
EditorsGerard P. Hodgkinson, William H. Starbuck
Place of PublicationOxford, UK
PublisherOxford University Press
ISBN (Print)9780199290468
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Publication series

NameOxford Handbooks
PublisherOxford University Press


  • Uncertainty
  • Futures
  • Decision making
  • Strategic cognition
  • Mental simulation
  • Forecasting
  • Strategic planning


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