Troubling futures: Scenarios and scenario planning for organizational decision making

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Abstract

Introduction – Scenarios as Cognitive Devices – Breaking the Shackles: Scenarios and Cognitive Inertia – Basic Effects of Scenarios on Judgments and Decisions – Effects of Scenarios on Uncertainty and Confidence – Scenarios Can Anchor and Restrict Thinking – The Role of Scenarios in Attenuating and Exacerbating Biases – The Problem with Incredible Futures: The Plausibility Paradox – Blowing Hot and Cold: Affective Dimensions of Scenario Planning – Summary and Conclusions
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making
EditorsGerard P. Hodgkinson, William H. Starbuck
Place of PublicationOxford, UK
PublisherOxford University Press
Pages565-585
ISBN (Print)9780199290468
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Publication series

NameOxford Handbooks
PublisherOxford University Press

Keywords

  • Uncertainty
  • Futures
  • Decision making
  • Strategic cognition
  • Mental simulation
  • Forecasting
  • Strategic planning

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