Abstract
looding remains a key risk to infrastructure with the latest climate projections indicating an increased likelihood of heavy precipitation. There have been a large number of recent high-profile events (e.g. the floods of East Yorkshire in 2020, the Toddbrook Reservoir incident in 2019) which highlight, with increasing confidence, the high magnitude of such risks and their interacting risks and consequences (sections 4.2.1 and 4.3.1). There has been some limited progress across the infrastructure sector in both assessing and adapting to the risk via a suite of flood protection measures (section 4.3.2). However, increasing winter rains will ensure the risk needs sustained management, as will coastal flooding. Revised projections indicate a sustained rise in mean sea levels around the UK (section 4.4.1). The latter is one area in which adaptation pathways are being used extensively (e.g. management of flood risk in the Thames Estuary) and other shoreline management plans (section 4.4.2).
Water scarcity in summer remains a concern for supply. Without adaptation and under a central population growth scenario, the water deficit across the UK by the late 21st Century is projected to be approximately 1220 and 2900 Ml/day for pathways to 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. This equates to the daily water usage of around 8.3 to 19.7 million people (HR Wallingford, 2020. See section 4.9.1). This increase in risk is a combination of population growth and climate change.
To maintain the current levels of risk (to the worst historic drought) in the face of rising population, environmental and climate pressures by the 2050s, would require additional capacity of about 2,700-3,000 Ml/day in England. Further adaptation is likely to be needed; this will more likely be measures that actually reduce demand rather than improve supply (section 4.9.3). Actions to increase supply are also being explored.
While significant progress has been made, an adaptation shortfall appears to remain for storms, lightning and high winds in the energy sector. An increasing dependency on the electricity network (section 4.2.1) means that energy supplies will need to become increasingly resilient to a range of increasing weather and climate risks across the sector (section 4.11.1). In particular, there is an adaptation shortfall to the effects of storms, lightning and high winds (linked to impacts on vegetation), although adaptation to heat and flooding is developing well. Water scarcity will also impact on the energy sector by limiting the cooling of thermal power plants (section 4.10.1) along with uncertain implications for hydroelectric generation (section 4.7.1). There are also considerable uncertainties regarding the effects of the changing future energy mix in the UK in line with Net Zero strategy (e.g. water requirements for the portfolio of Net Zero supply options). In particular, a notable further risk to energy generation is from an increasing reliance on generation of energy from offshore wind which is exposed to storms and high waves (section 4.12.1), although the exact impact of climate change on these phenomena remains uncertain.
A changing climate continues to be a problem for the transport sector. Both Network Rail and national highways agencies have been proactive in implementing adaptation measures on national networks, but sustained action is still required. Significant risks are still posed to railways with respect to flooding (sections 4.3.1 & 4.4.1) and heat (section 4.13.1). On roads, problems are more likely to occur on local roads and smaller schemes (section 4.13.3) and indeed, there is an underlying need to assess the impact of single points of failure more broadly (e.g. bridges (section 4.5.1), earthworks (section 4.6.1) and subsidence (section 4.8.1)). Often a paucity of data is restricting progress in these areas.
The systems nature of infrastructure means that any unmitigated risk has the potential to have a propagating impact across the network or lead to cascading failures across multiple networks. The consequences of cascading risks cause far-reaching social and economic disruption beyond the initial impact. Extensive research is still required into cascading and interacting risks with high profile case studies (e.g. flooding at Stansted Airport in 2013, the impacts of Storm Desmond in Lancaster in 2015) providing increasingly high confidence in the significant magnitude of the impacts (section 4.2.1). This is set to increase with climate change as the individual costs associated with impacts on each network become compounded. The increasing reliance on electricity (section 4.2.2) and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) (section 4.14.1) both represent key areas needing attention. For the latter, there remains a lack of publicly available information to ascertain the true scale of any vulnerabilities in the sector (section 4.14.2).
Current national planning policies for infrastructure differ in the extent to which climate impacts and adaptation are addressed. For new major infrastructure the 2017 update to EIA regulations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, includes a requirement to assess the infrastructure’s vulnerability to climate change, however it is not clear how comprehensive these assessments are in practice. Flood risks are also considered at the planning stage. There are fewer requirements for existing infrastructure to adapt to climate change. Some sectors have well-developed plans while other sectors are less well organised or have no coordinating body. Overall, there is a need for a coordinated, cross sectoral review of design codes and standards, climate risk guidance, inspections and maintenance guidance, and wider relevant industry guidance on risk management to incorporate the latest understanding of climate impacts.
Water scarcity in summer remains a concern for supply. Without adaptation and under a central population growth scenario, the water deficit across the UK by the late 21st Century is projected to be approximately 1220 and 2900 Ml/day for pathways to 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. This equates to the daily water usage of around 8.3 to 19.7 million people (HR Wallingford, 2020. See section 4.9.1). This increase in risk is a combination of population growth and climate change.
To maintain the current levels of risk (to the worst historic drought) in the face of rising population, environmental and climate pressures by the 2050s, would require additional capacity of about 2,700-3,000 Ml/day in England. Further adaptation is likely to be needed; this will more likely be measures that actually reduce demand rather than improve supply (section 4.9.3). Actions to increase supply are also being explored.
While significant progress has been made, an adaptation shortfall appears to remain for storms, lightning and high winds in the energy sector. An increasing dependency on the electricity network (section 4.2.1) means that energy supplies will need to become increasingly resilient to a range of increasing weather and climate risks across the sector (section 4.11.1). In particular, there is an adaptation shortfall to the effects of storms, lightning and high winds (linked to impacts on vegetation), although adaptation to heat and flooding is developing well. Water scarcity will also impact on the energy sector by limiting the cooling of thermal power plants (section 4.10.1) along with uncertain implications for hydroelectric generation (section 4.7.1). There are also considerable uncertainties regarding the effects of the changing future energy mix in the UK in line with Net Zero strategy (e.g. water requirements for the portfolio of Net Zero supply options). In particular, a notable further risk to energy generation is from an increasing reliance on generation of energy from offshore wind which is exposed to storms and high waves (section 4.12.1), although the exact impact of climate change on these phenomena remains uncertain.
A changing climate continues to be a problem for the transport sector. Both Network Rail and national highways agencies have been proactive in implementing adaptation measures on national networks, but sustained action is still required. Significant risks are still posed to railways with respect to flooding (sections 4.3.1 & 4.4.1) and heat (section 4.13.1). On roads, problems are more likely to occur on local roads and smaller schemes (section 4.13.3) and indeed, there is an underlying need to assess the impact of single points of failure more broadly (e.g. bridges (section 4.5.1), earthworks (section 4.6.1) and subsidence (section 4.8.1)). Often a paucity of data is restricting progress in these areas.
The systems nature of infrastructure means that any unmitigated risk has the potential to have a propagating impact across the network or lead to cascading failures across multiple networks. The consequences of cascading risks cause far-reaching social and economic disruption beyond the initial impact. Extensive research is still required into cascading and interacting risks with high profile case studies (e.g. flooding at Stansted Airport in 2013, the impacts of Storm Desmond in Lancaster in 2015) providing increasingly high confidence in the significant magnitude of the impacts (section 4.2.1). This is set to increase with climate change as the individual costs associated with impacts on each network become compounded. The increasing reliance on electricity (section 4.2.2) and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) (section 4.14.1) both represent key areas needing attention. For the latter, there remains a lack of publicly available information to ascertain the true scale of any vulnerabilities in the sector (section 4.14.2).
Current national planning policies for infrastructure differ in the extent to which climate impacts and adaptation are addressed. For new major infrastructure the 2017 update to EIA regulations in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, includes a requirement to assess the infrastructure’s vulnerability to climate change, however it is not clear how comprehensive these assessments are in practice. Flood risks are also considered at the planning stage. There are fewer requirements for existing infrastructure to adapt to climate change. Some sectors have well-developed plans while other sectors are less well organised or have no coordinating body. Overall, there is a need for a coordinated, cross sectoral review of design codes and standards, climate risk guidance, inspections and maintenance guidance, and wider relevant industry guidance on risk management to incorporate the latest understanding of climate impacts.
Original language | English |
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Commissioning body | Committee on Climate Change |
Number of pages | 224 |
Publication status | Published - Jun 2021 |