Uncertainty and the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios

The transition to a low carbon energy system must occur in the context of numerous uncertainties that occur at all scales, from the extent of the carbon reduction required through to the technologies and policies which will bring the reductions about. Against this background, the Tyndall Decarbonisation Scenarios project has sought to develop a new approach for the generation of energy scenarios, which focuses explicitly upon the transition to a low carbon energy system. Using a backcasting approach, the scenarios explore areas of uncertainty in relation to a low carbon energy system and how the low carbon transition may be brought about. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.