Uncertainty management in a giant fractured carbonate field, Oman, using experimental design

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a workflow for modeling uncertainty. It focuses upon a mature (brown) field redevelopment in a giant fractured carbonate field in Oman. We used experimental design to constrain the range and impact of individual parameters on production forecasts using historical field performance data. The approach allowed for an assessment of the interaction and impact of the uncertainty for a large number of subsurface parameters with a manageable number of model runs. A priori assumptions of the uncertainty range of each parameter were first modeled and then challenged during initial screening runs. Subsequently, historical data were used to constrain the uncertainty range of those parameters that were sensitive to past production performance. The uncertainty range of all other parameters was carried forward into the production forecast, and their impact on various development options was tested. The results of this work were input into a data gathering and pilot production plan to further delimit uncertainty ranges and to help select and optimize development options. Copyright © 2011 by The American Association of Petroleum Geologists.