Using probabilistic zone model simulations to investigate the deterministic assumptions of UK residential corridor smoke control design

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The modelling of common corridor smoke control systems in residential
buildings is one of the most frequently undertaken performance-based assessments by
fire engineers in the UK. However, there is limited understanding of how the deterministic
assumptions provided in modelling guidance are derived, and to what extent
these are representative of a range of possible outcomes. To place these assumptions
into context, the Monte Carlo method is applied using the zone modelling software
B-RISK for an exemplar residential arrangement. Distribution functions are adopted
to inform inputs for fire parameters, sprinkler performance, and occupant behavioural
characteristics. An output distribution for the corridor smoke clearance time
is determined and compared to the clearance time of an equivalent set of deterministic
simulations applying the assumptions of modelling guidance. The probabilistic
study indicates that modelling guidance assumptions typically result in a scenario
severity greater than the 99th percentile of possible outcomes. The work also considers
the sensitivity of individual input parameters, ranking these based on their
impact. These sensitivity analyses highlight the importance of occupant behavioural
assumptions around the pre-evacuation time and door open time, and the significance
of fire parameters including the elevation of the fuel bed, soot yield, and fire growth
rate. Sprinkler parameters are shown to have a lesser impact on the corridor clearance
time. The work therefore provides practitioners with an indication of which
parameters are worth considering in greater detail when assessing scenario sensitivity.
Original languageEnglish
JournalFire Technology
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022

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