Utilising expert opinion to improve the measurement of international migration in Europe

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Jakub Bijak, Solveig Christiansen, Jonathan J Forster, Nico Keilman, James Raymer, Peter WF Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)583-607
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Official Statistics
Volume29
Issue number4
Early online date9 Nov 2013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2013

Keywords

  • Bayesian modelling
  • elicitation
  • expert knowledge
  • migration statistics
  • Delphi Survey

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