A comprehensive assessment of vulnerability, poverty and crime risks of urban Mexican households

Abstract

This thesis studies vulnerability to poverty and its determinants, as well as the effects of crime risks on economic wellbeing of Mexican urban households. Specifically, estimates of the level of vulnerability to earnings poverty and vulnerability to consumption poverty of families are obtained. Also, the effects of crime rates, vandalism, crime victimization, and subjective indicators of criminal perception on household total income are explored. The first chapter analyses the determinants of per capita labour earnings, putting special emphasis on labour income effects of generic idiosyncratic and covariate shocks and drug-related crimes. Then a series of vulnerability to earnings poverty profiles are constructed (global, demographic and educational, regional, and labour). In the second chapter, estimates of the causal effect of a municipal crime severity index on the levels of ex ante mean and ex ante variance of consumption expenditures as well as on vulnerability to consumption poverty are presented. Factors that determine the transitory (or stochastic) part as well as the permanent (or deterministic) part of per capita annual consumption are also considered. This chapter includes estimates on the probability that a given household has today of falling into poverty in the future. A global vulnerability profile and a vulnerability and poverty profile by deciles of criminal severity are also built up. Moreover, a standard vulnerability to consumption poverty profile by demographic, educational and labour characteristics is included. In the third chapter the causal effects of covariate and idiosyncratic crime hazards and shocks on household per capita equivalent total income were estimated. This chapter considers personal and property crimes divided into seven categories: robbery-theft-burglary, break-in, property damage, intentional homicide, aggravated assault, sexual abuse and kidnapping. The income effect of locality vandalism is also evaluated. This chapter also presents point estimates that show the income effects of crime fear of being robbed in the day and at night, and on the subjective likelihood of future victimization. The income effect of robbery victimization was estimated as well.

Date of Award	1 Aug 2017
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	The University of Manchester
Supervisor	Armando Barrientos (Supervisor) & Katsushi Imai (Supervisor)