A Stakeholder-Driven Analytical Resilience Framework for Power Networks

Abstract

Power systems are essential to modern life, but outages from extreme weather, such as floods, remain a concern. This research employs a stakeholder-driven approach to develop accurate models for predicting flood damage and substation failure, with case studies in Malaysia. A bibliometric analysis highlighted gaps, including poor capture of the stochastic nature of flooding and limited understanding of substation failure modes. To address these, a resilience assessment framework was developed, integrating meteorology, hydrology, civil, and electrical engineering. The framework classifies substations by type: open-air, pole-mounted, and chamber-housed to address distinct failure modes. A key innovation is the assessment of inundation failure in open-air substations, overcoming limited historical data with a geo-referenced model using rainfall, topography, and stochastic simulations. A case study for stakeholders showed that raising open-air substations by 20 cm can delay flood impacts for one hundred hours. For pole-mounted and chamber-housed substations, which remain structurally vulnerable during extreme floods despite elevation and waterproofing measures, structural failures due to flood flow and debris were analysed using structural mechanics, finite element analysis, and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Moreover, fragility and risk curves were developed, and they indicated that: for pole-mounted substations, debris impact accounts for 40-80% of failures, and designs were recommended for a 1-in-25-year flood; while for chamber-housed substations, neglecting debris could underestimate failure by 60-83%, with more resilient designs recommended for a 1-in-10-year flood. This research also developed a user-friendly web tool that enables stakeholders to perform resilience assessments with a single click. Field visits and feedback sessions in Malaysia validated both the framework and the web tool's accuracy and practicality, fostering ongoing collaboration with stakeholders. Overall, this study presents an analytical framework for assessing power system resilience to flooding, developed through an interdisciplinary, stakeholder-driven approach. The solutions are globally applicable to regions facing similar flood-related substation challenges, making it a valuable resource for worldwide resilience assessment and planning.

Date of Award	28 Nov 2024
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	The University of Manchester
Supervisor	Lee Cunningham (Main Supervisor), Sarah Mander (Co Supervisor) & David Schultz (Co Supervisor)