Analysis of Dynamic Thermal Rating System of Transmission Lines

  • Jiashen Teh

Student thesis: Phd


There is a general consensus worldwide for a need to increase the capacities of transmission lines by not physically altering the transmission structures. Amidst this challenge, dynamic thermal rating (DTR) system appears as an appropriate option. Besides that, many countries have also pledged to integrate wind energy sources into their power networks. Taking these as motivations, the purpose of this thesis is to carry out the reliability analysis of DTR system for transmission lines. The two main standards - IEEE 738 and CIGRE, use for calculating the line rating of overhead lines has been analysed and compared. It was demonstrated that the two standards yield insignificant differences in their calculated line ratings. A new methodology that can systematically assess the reliability and risk of any DTR system designs was proposed in this thesis. In the reliability assessment part, methods such as the event tree analysis (ETA), risk reduction worth (RRW) and wide range method (WRM) were used. The risks of DTR systems were evaluated by implementing them in the IEEE 24-bus reliability test network (RTN). The network's loss of load and the percentages of the conductor loss of tensile strength constitute the risks of DTR systems. In the risk assessment part, a multiple-linear regression (MLR) model was proposed to estimate missing weather values during the failure of DTR sensors. Results in this thesis show that the MLR model is accurate and has only estimation error of less than 6%. It avoids overestimating the risk of DTR systems. An optimum DTR system design was also selected. The strategic placement of DTR sensors along a transmission line is an important reliability issue too. Hence, a new DTR sensor placement algorithm that considers the effects of DTR system ratings on the amount of line sagging, conductor annealing and the correlation between DTR system ratings and actual line ratings was proposed. Results in this thesis show that the newly proposed algorithm outperforms the currently published algorithm in terms of causing no spans to sag beyond their ground clearance limits and all spans experience lesser annealing effects. The 2-dimensional movement of line spans in their longitude and latitude directions, which the currently published algorithm also lacks, are considered in the proposed algorithm. This thesis also investigates the reliability behaviours of a power network that has DTR systems and wind farms. The proposed methodology for achieving that considers the reliability of transmission lines, DTR systems, conventional generators and wind turbines. The chronological behaviour of DTR ratings and wind farm power outputs was modelled using the auto-regressive and moving-average (ARMA) model. The correlations between the ARMA models were also considered. Results in this thesis show that by considering the correlation effects, the network's reliability indices are not over and under estimated. A new reliability index for describing the amount of wind power integration named as Expected Wind Power Delivered (EWPD) was proposed as well.
Date of Award1 Aug 2016
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • The University of Manchester
SupervisorIan Cotton (Supervisor) & Jovica Milanovic (Supervisor)


  • IEEE 738
  • Reliability
  • Power system
  • Dynamic Thermal Rating (DTR) System
  • Transmission lines

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