Behavioural bumpiness: modelling the impact of behavioural heterogeneity in macro level systems

Abstract

This thesis presents two examples of the impact of behavioural phenomena at macro scale within a social system. In the context of an asset market we study the impact of leverage and the impact that borrowing behaviour has for price dynamics. We find in turn that, the nature of that decision making whilst subtle, has significant consequences for the stability of leveraged asset markets. We also examine the role behaviour plays in the spread of a disease through a population using a very similar technique. In this instance we identify a parameter set that characterises a set of behaviours not previously identified in the literature, that characterises both substantially different behaviours and would appear to better align with field data. The existence of such alternative explanations for macro level dynamics has significant consequences for policy makers and researchers.

Date of Award	4 May 2022
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	The University of Manchester
Supervisor	Michele Berardi (Main Supervisor) & George Bratsiotis (Co Supervisor)