Essays on Public Policy and Programme Evaluations in Developing Countries

Abstract

This thesis contains two essays about public policies in developing countries using examples of China and Mexico. The first chapter studies the impact of New Rural Social Pension Programme on poverty reduction among the ageing population in China. From 2011 to 2015, the overall poverty and inequality levels are reduced in great measure in both urban and rural areas. However, the causal identification strategies show a limited and complex impact. While PSM-FE gives a positive policy effect on promoting the household income, expenditure and Multi Dimensional Poverty Index in rural areas, other empirical results in poverty headcount and labour market decisions are not significant. The possible explanations include the huge urban-rural difference, the relatively low state pension level and intricate implementation details in practice. The second chapter analyses the long-term impact of PROGRESA, the most influential Conditional Cash Transfer programme in Mexico, launched in 1997. After over 20 years of implementation, I use long panel survey data from 1997 to 2017 to study the long-term impacts on the educational attainment and the labour market performance. The attrition problem is addressed by Inverse Probability Weights. To further explore the causal effects, I employ PSM and empirical results find that the treated individuals have better educational attainments in both time and level. Moreover, if the individuals are in the labour market, they are more likely to work and earn a higher salary than those untreated.

Date of Award	1 Aug 2021
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	The University of Manchester
Supervisor	Katsushi Imai (Supervisor) & Xiaobing Wang (Supervisor)