Extreme Event Attribution to Climate Change in India: Perspectives and Practices

Abstract

Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) is a scientific way to link extreme weather events to climate change. Attribution science has been operational for two decades. Although attribution science is projected to be extremely beneficial for climate adaptation and mitigation, it has not been widely adopted by the public and institutions for climate action. People and institutions approach and understand scientific knowledge on climate change through a filtered lens of their fundamental values, social interactions, worldviews (cultural, political, and economic), and personal experiences. These filters shape how each individual or institution perceives risk, influencing the feasibility and acceptability of climate adaptation planning, policymaking, and implementation. There has been limited investigation into how individual perceptions of extreme weather attribution and their implications for climate adaptation impact the uptake of attribution science. This study aims to investigate stakeholder perceptions and practices related to climate risks and attribution science, drawing on forty semi-structured interviews with three diverse groups of stakeholders: climate researchers, non-governmental organisations, and local communities and businesses in five sites of India that have experienced extreme heatwaves (Delhi, Nagpur, and Rajasthan) and rainfall events (Chennai and Kerala). Based on past EEA case studies, the research presents original findings that contribute to the broader debate on the role of attribution studies in climate adaptation and development, particularly in rapidly emerging and climate-vulnerable nations such as India. This study concludes that stakeholder perceptions are greatly influenced by proximity and awareness of the implications and risks associated with extreme weather events in both personal and professional contexts. These results help explore the practical viability of attribution science based on stakeholders' views about the existing and potential utilities and hazards of attribution science. The inquiry provides valuable insights into how to incorporate attribution studies into climate change adaptation practices and communication, fostering broader, pluralistic engagement in India, based on cultural worldviews and adaptation preferences. This research suggests that effectively integrating attribution science into policymaking requires an inclusive and reflexive interaction among various stakeholder groups.

Date of Award	15 Dec 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	The University of Manchester
Supervisor	David Schultz (Main Supervisor) & Robert Bellamy (Co Supervisor)